MTN
MTN
MTN - MTN Group Limited - Release of subscriber numbers for The Quarter Ended 31
March 2011
MTN Group Limited
(Incorporated in the Republic of South Africa)
Registration Number 1994/009584/06
Share code: MTN
ISIN: ZAE000042164
("MTN Group")
RELEASE OF SUBSCRIBER NUMBERS FOR THE QUARTER ENDED 31 March 2011
MTN Group recorded 147,265,000 subscribers at 31 March 2011. This is a 4%
increase for the quarter from 141,598,000 subscribers recorded at 31 December
2010. The Group continued to perform well despite aggressive competition and
heightened political unrest in certain countries in the Middle East and West
Africa.
MTN continues to make good progress on its various key group initiatives.
* Data, including SMS, has continued its strong growth trajectory. In
South Africa, smartphones account now account for 11% of the postpaid
and 1.5% of the prepaid base.
* As previously disclosed, MTN entered into a joint venture agreement
with American Tower Corporation to acquire the tower portfolio of MTN
Ghana. The joint venture closed on the acquisition of an initial
tranche of 400 towers in early May 2011.
* Mobile money subscribers increased by 5% to 4,6 million when compared
to December 2010. MTN is now active in 12 of its markets, 5 of which
are in pilot soft launch phase. In Uganda, mobile money revenues
contributed more than 3.5% of total in country revenue for the
quarter.
* MTN continues to benefit from its various cable investments. In April
this year the high-capacity West Africa Cable System (WACS) linking
Southern Africa and Europe landed at Yzerfontein, South Africa. The
14,000km long fibre optic submarine cable system has already landed
in Nigeria, Cote d`Ivoire and Cameroon and is expected to land in
Ghana in early May 2011. MTN is the landing party in the last four
countries mentioned. Service on this cable system is anticipated to
commence in late 2011.
The analysis below is presented on a regional basis. The subscriber bases of the
three regions continue to grow at marginally different rates although, when
compared to December 2010, the subscriber contribution between the regions
remains relatively unchanged. South and East Africa (SEA) region contributed 22%
(December 2010: 22%) of the Group`s total subscribers while West and Central
Africa (WECA) and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) contributed 45% (December
2010: 46%) and 33% (December 2010: 32%), respectively.
The SEA region increased its subscriber base by 3.2% for the quarter. The South
African operation contributes 58% to the region`s subscribers, increasing by
1.9% to 19,197,000 for the quarter. The growth was slower than expected as a
result of higher prepaid disconnections due mainly to seasonality, although some
distribution difficulties also contributed. Market share was marginally down
following increased competition in the prepaid segment. Uganda increased its
subscriber base by 6.9% to 6,908,000 maintaining its leadership position in an
increasingly competitive market.
The WECA region increased its subscriber base by 3.4% for the quarter. The
strong growth in the region was attributable to good growth in Nigeria and Ghana
which contribute 60% and 14% respectively. Nigeria recorded a 4% increase in its
subscriber base to 40,211,000 as competitor campaigns and promotions stepped up.
MTN responded by introducing new segmented tariff plans and bundled offerings in
late January 2011. This enabled MTN to retain its market share. Ghana also
increased its subscriber base by 4% to 9,070,000 maintaining its market share as
competition intensified. This was due to competitive offers in the market,
improved churn management as well as the introduction of attractive data
packages. Cameroon recorded negative net additions of 203 000 following a
regulatory requirement to disconnect 306,000 unregistered subscribers at the end
of March 2011. The company had secured 91.4% of the revenue by the end of the
quarter, however the regulatory requirements negatively impacted distribution
efficiency. Cote d`Ivoire increased its subscriber base only marginally to
5,406,000 mainly as a result of the political and social instability. Although
there seems to be resolution of the political dispute, the civil unrest has had
a negative impact on the country and normalisation of the operation is expected
to take some time. Following a dispute relating to fees allegedly owed to the
authorities in Guinea Conakry, a presidential decree has placed the company and
its assets under the administration of the regulator. MTN`s operations in Guinea
Conakry, Areeba, are negotiating in good faith with the government. We are
confident that both parties will reach an amicable solution that will be in the
best interest of all the stakeholders affected, including the millions of MTN
subscribers in Guinea.
The MENA region recorded a 5.5% increase in subscribers for the quarter. The
growth within the region was largely attributable to Iran which contributes 66%
to the region`s subscribers and which increased its subscribers by 5.5% to
31,391,000. Iran continued to perform well as its value propositions remain
attractive to the market. Syria increased its subscribers by less than 1% to
4,920,000. The licence conversion process is still on track although it is will
be delayed as a result of the present unrest in the country.
In line with previous year`s trends, the year to date first quarter ARPU`s show
a step change. MTN South Africa`s blended average revenue per a user ("ARPU")
decreased by 10% to R137. Prepaid ARPU decreased 10% to R101 and postpaid APRU
continued on a downward trend declining 9% to R299.This is as a result of
continued migration onto lower value packages. Nigerian ARPU decreased by 6% to
$10 as increased usage partially offset lower tariffs. Ghana`s ARPU declined by
5% to $7 mainly due to the impact of currency movements as local currency ARPU`s
increased marginally. Iran`s ARPU continued to remain relatively stable at $8
while lower usage in Syria reduced ARPU by 12% to $14.
Revised 2011 net additions guidance
Old (000`) New (000`)
South Africa 2,000 2,000
Nigeria 4,200 4,400
Ghana 390 900
Iran 3,350 4,200
Syria 600 500
Rest 6,385 6,435
16,925 18,435
Subscriber Numbers
Dec-10 Mar-11 % change Contribution
%
Subs `000 Subs
`000
SEA
South Africa 18,841 19,197 1.9% 58%
Post-paid 3,365 3,434 2.1% 10%
Pre-paid 15,477 15,763 1.8% 48%
Uganda 6,463 6,908 6.9% 21%
Mascom - 1,445 2.2% 4%
Botswana 1,414
Rwanda 2,547 2,638 3.6% 8%
Zambia 1,900 2,043 7.5% 6%
Swaziland 726 678 -6.6% 2%
Sub total 31,891 32,909 3.2% 22.3%
WECA
Nigeria 38,669 40,211 4.0% 60%
Ghana 8,721 9,070 4.0% 14%
Cameroon 4,792 4,589 -4.2% 7%
Cote d`Ivoire 5,381 5,406 0.5% 8%
Benin 2,144 2,245 4.7% 3%
Conakry 1,761 2,002 13.7% 3%
Congo - 1,666 1,725 3.5% 3%
Brazzaville
Liberia 746 795 6.5% 1%
Bissau 568 570 0.3% 1%
Sub total 64,449 66,613 3.4% 45.2%
MENA
Iran 29,743 31,391 5.5% 66%
Syria 4,898 4,920 0.4% 10%
Sudan 3,475 4,016 15.6% 8%
Afghanistan 4,045 4,189 3.6% 9%
Yemen 2,856 2,977 4.2% 6%
Cyprus 241 250 4.0% 1%
Sub total 45,257 47,743 5.5% 32.4%
Total 141,598 147,265 4.0% 100%
Subscribers
ARPU
Dec-10 Mar-11 % LC % change
change*
YTD ARPU YTD ARPU
SEA
South R 152 R 137 -10% -10%
Africa**
Post-paid R 329 R 299 -9% -9%
Pre-paid R 112 R 101 -10% -10%
Uganda $5 $4 -22% -16%
Mascom - $11 $10 -11% -15%
Botswana
Rwanda $5 $4 -24% -24%
Zambia $6 $5 -16% -17%
Swaziland $12 $14 11% -7%
WECA
Nigeria $11 $10 -6% -5%
Ghana $7 $7 -5% 1%
Cameroon $8 $7 -8% -12%
Cote $7 $6 -3% -6%
d`Ivoire
Benin $9 $9 -3% -6%
Conakry $5 $5 -18% -6%
Congo - $10 $9 -12% -16%
Brazzaville
Liberia $10 $10 7% 7%
Bissau $8 $6 -18% -21%
MENA
Iran $8 $8 -1% 0%
Syria $16 $14 -12% -11%
Sudan $5 $4 -4% 8%
Afghanistan $5 $5 -16% -18%
Yemen $6 $6 -12% -14%
Cyprus $32 $32 -2% -6%
* %`s are based on actual and not rounded figures
Subscribers are customers who have participated in a revenue generating activity
in the last 90 days. ARPU is the monthly weighted average revenue per
subscriber. Revenue includes interconnect fees and excludes connection fees and
visitor roaming revenue, and this is divided by the weighted average subscriber
base over the period.
** South Africa subscribers and ARPU`s include community service payphones into
pre-paid and application providers into post-paid.
Fairland
6 May 2011
Sponsor
Deutsche Securities (SA) (Proprietary) Limited
Date: 06/05/2011 13:11:14 Produced by the JSE SENS Department.
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