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Invesco USD Reserve Fund - News
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Invesco USD Reserve Fund
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Fund
News
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INVESCO Dollar Reserve comment - Jun 07
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Monday, 1 October 2007
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Fund Manager Comment
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The Federal Open Market Committee held its fourth policy-setting meeting of the year at month-end and duly left the target rate for overnight federal funds unchanged at 5.25% - the rate has now been on hold for a full twelve months. Since the markets have been discounting rates to be unchanged throughout this calendar year, the decision had been universally expected. Focus fell on the wording of the accompanying statement and any changes to the language therein. Once again the Fed left its data-dependent neutral-hawkish bias in place, reflecting that the risks to inflation remain the main concern facing the economic outlook. The key change to the language confirmed this assessment - the new wording read, "a sustained moderation in inflation pressures has yet to be convincingly demonstrated", which replaced the previous wording, "inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time". Note that even though the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the core PCE deflator, was reported rising 0.1%mom in May and at an annual rate of 1.9%, the Fed is for now more concerned with risks to the medium-term inflation outlook caused by global demand pressures.
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INVESCO Dollar Reserve comment - Mar 07
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Monday, 28 May 2007
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Fund Manager Comment
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The Federal Reserve's policy-setting committee, the FOMC, held its second meeting of the year this month and as universally expected left the target rate for overnight federal funds unchanged at 5.25% - the benchmark rate has now remained at this level since June last year and throughout this period the committee has maintained its "inflation risk" bias. Nonetheless, the meeting was in no way a non-event as changes to the wording in the accompanying statement were enough to see both bond and stock markets record strong gains - on the day of the announcement the one year strip fell 9 basis points to 5.16% whilst the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed the day 159 points higher at 12,447. The policy statement was interpreted as being less hawkish by market analysts due to the omission of the phrase, "additional firming may be needed to address (inflation) risks", which suggests a reduction in the tightening bias and a further move towards a balanced outlook on risks. The committee also acknowledged the concern that risks to economic growth could emerge going forward, which in turn places even greater emphasis on the labour market data going forward. Evidence of a slowing economy duly arrived in the form of the Leading Indicators index which fell 0.5%mom in February, whilst the January reading was revised down to -0.3%mom - this is the first time since November 2001 that the index has recorded consecutive monthly declines.
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INVESCO Dollar Reserve comment - Dec 06
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Wednesday, 28 February 2007
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Fund Manager Comment
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The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the target rate for overnight federal funds unchanged at 5.25% for the fourth consecutive occasion at its meeting on Dec. 12th. Once again, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker dissented from the majority, voting for a 25bps hike. In the statement that accompanies the policy decision the FOMC stated that it continues to see the economy expanding at a moderate pace, adding the qualification, “on balance, over coming quarters”, thus suggesting a level of volatility in the series can be
expected. On inflation, the FOMC’s view remains unchanged, the committee again commenting that inflation risks remain and that any additional tightening would be data dependent. And in common with the monetary policy setting committees of the UK and Europe, the FOMC says that it expects price pressures to moderate in the medium-term. Looking forward to 2007, the money markets moved in December to discount a far less aggressive pace of policy easing going forward – the 12 month Libor fixing increased from 5.11000 on December 5th to close the month at 5.32938, some 23bps tighter. Elsewhere, the fourth quarter will be remembered for the tumble experienced by the greenback against the major world currencies, the dollar closing the year at 1.9589 against the pound and 1.3199 against the EURO - former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan reflected that he expects the greenback to fall further until there is an improvement in the US balance of payments.
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INVESCO Dollar Reserve comment - Sep 06
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Monday, 20 November 2006
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Fund Manager Comment
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This month's FOMC meeting saw the Federal Reserve leaving its target rate for overnight federal funds unchanged at 5.25% on the second consecutive occasion - the two remaining meetings this year are scheduled for October 24/25 and December 12. Only minor adjustments were made to the Fed's statement leaving the existing scenario largely in place, that is, that additional firming of policy may be needed at a later stage and that future policy decisions will be data dependent. The statement once again suggested that "inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time", but this time also noted a "reduced impetus from energy prices" going forward. The forward looking statement was unchanged and emphasised that upside risks to inflation still remain - the precise wording read, "The extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these risks will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information". Elsewhere, the month suffered a series of soft data releases which caused bond markets to rally and provided support for the view that the Fed will now leave its benchmark rate on hold through the year-end.
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INVESCO Dollar Reserve comment - Jun 06
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Wednesday, 30 August 2006
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Fund Manager Comment
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As universally expected, the Federal Reserve's policy-setting committee, the FOMC, delivered a seventeenth successive policy tightening move of 25bps at its meeting on June 29th, taking the target rate for overnight federal funds to 5.25%. In the accompanying statement Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke surprised the markets with a far more dovish message than had been anticipated - the immediate impact saw the greenback losing ground to the major currencies (sterling for example gained 2˝ cents overnight to trade around 1.8350), the Dow closing the day 217 points higher, and in the money markets the 12 month Libor re-fixed some 7 points lower on the following day at 5.69313%. The statement read, "the committee judges that some inflation risks remain..…the extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these risks will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information". The Fed further acknowledged that the period of above trend growth was over and that inflation risks were contained outside the short-term, leading some analysts to suggest that the top of the interest rate cycle had now been reached. Not according to the markets though - the chances of a further hike at the next FOMC meeting in August were still discounted at 65% after the announcement as opposed to 83% beforehand.
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INVESCO Dollar Reserve comment - Sep 05
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Tuesday, 15 November 2005
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Fund Manager Comment
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The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on September 20th delivered the eleventh consecutive 25bp hike in the target rate for overnight federal funds taking the benchmark rate to 3.75%. The accompanying FOMC statement noted the strong pre-Katrina conditions, the transitory nature of the disruption to growth caused by the hurricane damage, and the increased pressures from higher oil prices - the Fed also included its "get-out" clause allowing flexibility going forward. The Fed is now clearly focussed on inflation and it may well be that the soft trend that the inflation data has recently experienced has now come to an end - Fed Governor Kohn suggested that further work needs to be done to understand the relationship between oil prices and inflation, and that factors other than higher monetary policy may have contributed to recent benign price levels. The Fed's Hoenig had earlier said that higher labour and non-labour costs will keep the Fed vigilant to inflation risks.
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INVESCO Dollar Reserve comment - Jun 05
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Wednesday, 24 August 2005
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Fund Manager Comment
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In testimony before the Joint Economic Committee, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan took the opportunity to deliver a guarded but optimistic view for the US economic outlook - he went on to suggest that tighter policy would be needed going forward to bring monetary policy to neutral. The less upbeat tone Mr Greenspan adopted suggested that the top of the rate cycle might be closer than previously expected, he commented, "the most recent data supports the view that the soft readings on the economy observed in the early spring were not presaging a more serious slowdown in the pace of activity". As universally expected the Fed's policy-setting committee, the FOMC, raised the target rate for overnight federal funds by 25bps to 3.25% at its meeting on June 30 - the committee has now taken similar action at each of its last nine consecutive meetings as it seeks to remove the accommodative monetary policy. The language in the accompanying statement was largely unchanged with the risks to growth and inflation once again seen as balanced. The statement noted that growth was still "firm" and that "longer term inflation expectations remain well-contained".
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INVESCO Dollar Reserve comment - Mar 05
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Tuesday, 31 May 2005
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Fund Manager Comment
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In line with consensus expectations, the Federal Open Market Committee raised the target rate for overnight federal funds by 25 bps to 2.75% at its policy-setting meeting on March 22nd - this is now the seventh consecutive quarter-point tightening the Fed has implemented since it started removing its accommodative policy back in June last year. The Fed retained its balanced risk assessment and also its "measured" tightening wording but did replace its inflation stance - the February statement read, "inflation and longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained", now replaced with, "though longer-term inflation expectations remain well contained, pressures on inflation have picked up in recent months and pricing power is more evident. The rise in energy prices, however, has not notably fed through to core consumer prices". Looking forward, the possibility of 50bp moves in the future remains with the Fed retaining its get-out option, "the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfil its obligation to maintain price stability".
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INVESCO Dollar Reserve comment - Dec 04
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Thursday, 17 March 2005
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Fund Manager Comment
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As universally expected, the Federal Open Market Committee raised the target rate for overnight federal funds by 0.25% to 2.25% at its meeting on December 14. The tone of the accompanying statement remained largely unchanged - the expansion remained underway and the "measured" pace of tightening could continue. Economic releases in the month supported the Fed's optimism for future US growth prospects -unemployment has now fallen to 5.4%, growth is reported running at an annualised 4%, consumer confidence is rising, and the positive effects of a weaker dollar on activity levels are beginning to show. The household sector remains strong as evidenced by rising personal spending levels, strong income growth, cheap debt and rising house prices. The FOMC next meets on February 2 and the minutes of the December meeting would suggest that a further 0.25% rate rise can be expected then, as the present level of monetary policy is deemed too accommodative to contain inflationary pressures building in the economy.
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INVESCO Dollar Reserve comment - Sep 04
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Thursday, 18 November 2004
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Fund Manager Comment
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As widely expected, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) continued its measured pace of tightening by hiking the target rate for overnight federal funds by 25 basis points to 1.75% at its September 21 policy-setting meeting. The accompanying statement recognised the current benign inflationary environment, which suggests the FOMC is in no rush to return interest rates to equilibrium levels - risks to both growth and inflation are seen to be balanced. On inflation, the Fed commented that despite the rise in oil prices, inflation and inflationary expectations had eased in recent months. It added that, despite partly moderating in response to the substantial rise in energy prices, output growth appeared to have regained some traction and labour market conditions had improved modestly. The statement did, however, retain the get-out clause inserted last time around, allowing the Fed to deviate from this stance should it be required to "respond to changes in economic prospects, to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability".
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INVESCO Dollar Reserve comment - Jun 04
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Wednesday, 4 August 2004
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Fund Manager Comment
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Comments from Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan left market analysts in no doubt that tighter policy in the United States was on the horizon - speaking in a satellite address to the International Monetary Policy Committee meeting held in London, he indicated that the US Federal Reserve would adopt a cautionary and measured approach when implementing tighter policy. Further comments from Fed officials, together with soft data, then caused a rebound in market sentiment which now sees the Fed tightening policy less aggressively than was once feared and at a more "measured" pace. The June 30 FOMC meeting finally arrived and delivered pretty much as expected - the overnight target rate for federal funds was raised for the first time in over four years, to 1.25%, whilst the accompanying statement indicated there was no "bias" in place with respect to risks facing the economy, and that a "measured" rate of policy tightening in the coming months could be expected. The Fed did insert a get-out clause however, "the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfil its obligation to maintain price stability", so leaving the door open to more aggressive policy hikes should inflation levels warrant.
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INVESCO Dollar Reserve comment - Mar 04
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Thursday, 3 June 2004
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Fund Manager Comment
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The month was dominated by much weaker-than-expected US labour market data. The all-important non-farm payroll figure was very disappointing, suggesting that 21,000 jobs were created in February instead of the 130,000 expected. The market immediately pared back its expectations for US rate hikes, and there was an increase in the number of commentators suggesting that the US Federal Reserve can refrain from tightening policy until 2005. Other data was more mixed. Consumer confidence edged up in March to 95.8 from 94.4 in February, but remains some margin below the 103.8 level in January, which represented the highest level since November 1999. It seems that the sluggish employment picture is weighing on consumer sentiment. Business sentiment continues to hold up reasonably well. The ISM PMI index for February, released at the beginning of the month, fell to 61.4 from 63.6, but the latter itself was a 20-year high. Looking forward, the market's attention will remain on trying to anticipate the timing of the first Fed rate increase. This will depend on both labour market and inflation developments.
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INVESCO Dollar Reserve comment - Dec 03
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Monday, 8 March 2004
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Fund Manager Comment
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The fund aims to provide the maximum return with a high degree of security from a portfolio of short-dated fixed interest securities, which have an initial or residual term to maturity not exceeding 12 months. The assets of the Fund may also comprise floating rate debt securities with a term to maturity exceeding 12 months provided that the rate of interest attached is reset at least once annually. The weighted average maturity of the fund is limited to 90 days.
The Federal Reserve Bank's policy-setting committee left the target for overnight federal funds unchanged at 1% at its meeting this month in line with expectations, but perhaps something of a surprise was the fact that the committee failed to remove the "considerable period of time" language with respect to how long the committee expect policy to remain "accommodative". The committee noted the improving labour market and the US economy's recent growth, and commented that "the risk of deflation still marginally outweighs the risks of inflation". All in all, the committee succeeded in subtly changing the tone without upsetting the markets. Elsewhere, data releases in the month proved mixed. The ISM manufacturing index soared to 62.8 in November from 57.0 in the previous month, recording its highest level in nineteen years and well above market expectations. Although the ISM services index disappointed against expectations, the reading was relatively high at 60.1. The payrolls figure disappointed most though, recording a gain of just 57,000 versus a consensus forecast of 150,000.
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INVESCO Dollar Reserve comment - Sep 03
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Friday, 21 November 2003
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Fund Manager Comment
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The fund aims to provide the maximum return with a high degree of security from a portfolio of short-dated fixed interest securities, which have an initial or residual term to maturity not exceeding 12 months. The assets of the fund may also comprise floating rate debt securities with a term to maturity exceeding 12 months, provided that the rate of interest attached is reset at least once annually. The weighted average maturity of the Fund is limited to 90 days.
As expected, the Federal Reserve Bank's policy-setting committee, the FOMC, left the target rate for overnight federal funds unchanged at 1% at its meeting this month. In the accompanying statement, the Fed indicated that interest rates are likely to remain low for a considerable time as downside risks to the inflationary outlook remain a big concern. The statement read, "the risk of inflation becoming undesirably low is likely to be the predominant concern for the foreseeable future". Doubts concerning the strength of the US recovery became a real concern as the month ended, the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbling 384 points from its intra-month high to end the period at 9,275. The dollar weakened significantly against all major currencies as markets reacted negatively to the G7 press release, which was perhaps misinterpreted to suggest that the US wanted a weaker dollar. The broader picture suggests that it is the Asian currencies which are undervalued and need to appreciate to regain equilibrium in the currency markets. Bond markets were supported by the weakness in equities, the yield on the 10-year note ending the period at 3.94% having started September at 4.46%.
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INVESCO Dollar Reserve comment - June 2003
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Friday, 1 August 2003
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Fund Manager Comment
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The fund aims to provide the maximum return with a high degree of security from a portfolio of short-dated fixed interest securities, which have an initial or residual term to maturity not exceeding 12 months. The assets of the fund may also comprise floating rate debt securities with a term to maturity exceeding 12 months, provided that the rate of interest attached is reset at least once annually. The weighted average maturity of the Fund is limited to 90 days.
Whilst attending the global monetary policy conference in Berlin via satellite, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan suggested that the US economy had stabilised in May and that the end of the war in Iraq had brought about a reversal in economic conditions that now reflected lower energy costs and higher consumer confidence. But despite rhetoric from Fed members suggesting an aggressive approach would be adopted to ward off the dangers of deflation to the US economy, the Fed's policy-setting committee, the FOMC, disappointed markets by only delivering a 25 basis points cut at its June meeting which took the target rate for overnight federal funds down to a 45-year low of just 1%.
The Fed did maintain its easing bias, and whilst it perceives the risk to the growth outlook as roughly equal, it clearly remains concerned over the prospects of a substantial fall in inflation. The accompanying statement which was intended to boost market confidence failed in this objective - both bond and equity markets closed appreciably lower on the day. What is clear, however, is that the Fed expects interest rates to remain low for a considerable time.
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INVESCO Dollar Reserve comment - March 2003
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Monday, 26 May 2003
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Fund Manager Comment
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The fund aims to provide the maximum return with a high degree of security from a portfolio of short-dated fixed interest securities, which have an initial or residual term to maturity not exceeding 12 months. The assets of the Fund may also comprise floating rate debt securities with a term to maturity exceeding 12 months provided that the rate of interest attached is reset at least once annually. The weighted average maturity of the Fund is limited to 90 days.
The March Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the target rate for overnight federal funds unchanged at 1.25%. In a statement following the meeting the committee declined to give any indication as to its current "bias ",stating that;" due to the unusually large uncertainties that are clouding the geopolitical situation, a useful assessment of the current balance of risks with respect to the long-term goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth could not be made".
As hostilities in Iraq commenced, the unexpected resistance added further volatility to the financial markets. Data releases in the month confirmed the current weak sentiment -for example the Conference Board 's figures showed consumer confidence falling to 62.5 in March from 64.8 in February, whilst the unemployment rate now looks to be on its way back up to 6%. Finally, news on the budget deficit was conflicting as spending on the war looks set to increase, while the Senate voted 51-48 to reduce President Bush 's proposed expansionary tax cuts from $726 billion to $350 billion.
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INVESCO GT Dollar Reserve comment - October 2002
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Monday, 9 December 2002
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Fund Manager Comment
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The Fund aims to provide the maximum return with a high degree of security from a portfolio of short-dated fixed interest securities, which have an initial or residual term to maturity not exceeding 12 months. The assets of the Fund may also comprise floating rate debt securities with a term to maturity exceeding 12 months provided that the rate of interest attached is reset at least once annually. The weighted average maturity of the Fund is limited to 90 days.
Economic data releases continue to point to further weakness in the US domestic economy. Non-farm payroll employment fell for the second straight month in October, while the manufacturing sector continued to slump. Consumer attitudes plunged to a nine-year low as consumers became increasingly concerned about the economy, the job market, terrorism, and the continuing tales of corporate scandals.
The demonstrated weakness in the data and the increasingly disappointing outlook for the fourth quarter made the Federal Reserve interest rate cut at the beginning of November unsurprising. The 50bps reduction may send a message of undue alarm to the markets however and we do not expect further cuts.
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INVESCO GT Dollar Reserve comment - September 2002
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Friday, 1 November 2002
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Fund Manager Comment
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The fund aims to provide the maximum return with a high degree of security from a portfolio of short-dated fixed interest securities, which have an initial or residual term to maturity not exceeding 12 months. The assets of the fund may also comprise floating rate debt securities with a term to maturity exceeding 12 months provided that the rate of interest attached is reset at least once annually. The weighted average maturity of the fund is limited to 90 days.
The Federal Reserve Bank's Open Market Committee met for the sixth time this year and as had been expected left its benchmark rate (target for overnight federal funds) unchanged at 1.75%, a four-decade low. It was noticeable that there was an unusual degree of dissent to the majority's opinion, so increasing the probability that rates could be cut at the next meeting scheduled for November 6th. For the fifth straight meeting the Fed indicated that monetary policy remained accommodative but the Fed also acknowledged that, "considerable uncertainty persists about the extent and timing of the expected pick-up in production and employment", that the Fed blames on "the emergence of heightened geopolitical risks", which can be interpreted as fears of a war with Iraq.
Noticeably absent in the Fed's statement was any phrase suggesting that rates might be reduced before the next meeting, being the day following the Congressional elections. By waiting until after the elections, the Fed would avoid any hint of political favouritism implied by a rate cut just in front of the elections.
Elsewhere, the Commerce Department released final figures for Q2 GDP, reporting that the economy grew for the third successive quarter at a 1.3% annual rate, well above the previous estimate of 1.1%.
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INVESCO Dollar Reserve comment - Jul 2002
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Tuesday, 17 September 2002
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Fund Manager Comment
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The fund aims to provide the maximum return with a high degree of security from a portfolio of short-dated fixed interest securities, which have an initial or residual term to maturity not exceeding 12 months. The assets of the Fund may also comprise floating rate debt securities with a term to maturity exceeding 12 months provided that the rate of interest attached is reset at least once annually. The weighted average maturity of the Fund is limited to 90 days.
Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Alan Greenspan testified before both Houses in July, delivering his semi-annual economic update. He offered an optimistic outlook noting, "Although the uncertainties of earlier this year are not fully resolved...the fundamentals are in place for a return to sustained growth".
The upbeat appraisal came as little surprise as it echoed comments from other Fed officials, and any adverse comments would surely have delivered a sharp blow to an already fragile equity market. Confirming the Fed Chairman's observation, the Labour Department reported that consumer prices inched up just 0.1% in June after being unchanged in May. This low inflationary scenario allows the Fed to concentrate on stimulating the economy by keeping monetary policy low and borrowing cheap.
By the end of July the slide in the Dow Jones industrial average showed the first signs of abating, rising by over 400 points on two occasions towards month-end. The second quarter GDP data release surprised on the downside, recording growth of 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, following a downward revised 5.0% gain in the first quarter.
The Fed's Beige Book release also indicated that the economy's activity levels had dropped since the start of the year. The Fed's target rate for overnight federal funds is therefore expected to remain at 1.75% in the nearterm, unchanged since 11 December 2001.
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INVESCO Dollar Reserve comment - Jun 2002
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Wednesday, 11 September 2002
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Fund Manager Comment
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The fund aims to provide the maximum return with a high degree of security from a portfolio of short-dated fixed interest securities which have an initial or residual term to maturity not exceeding twelve-months. The assets of the fund may also comprise floating-rate debt securities with a term to maturity exceeding twelve-months provided that the rate of interest attached is reset at least once annually. The weighted average maturity of the fund is limited to 90 days.
The Federal Reserve Bank's Open Market Committee (Fed) left its target rate for overnight federal funds unchanged at 1.75%, as expected, at its policy discussion meeting at the end of June. The Committee also indicated that the economic risks remain balanced between inflation and economic weakness, a policy stance that might well have been altered in view of the heightened fragility in the equity markets.
The Fed noted, "the information that has become available since the last meeting of the Committee confirms that economic activity is continuing to increase" and, while " the Committee expects the rate of increase in final demand to pick up over coming quarters.....the degree of the strengthening remains uncertain". These comments coincide with the widely held belief that the economy, which grew at a remarkable 6.1% in the first quarter, slowed to a pace of barely half that in the second quarter.
With the recovery beginning to slow more than expected and with the sharp decline in the equity markets created by the drop in investor confidence resulting from a torrent of corporate scandals, the Fed is not likely to tighten until late in the year, if indeed even then.
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INVESCO Dollar Reserve comment April 2002
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Tuesday, 21 May 2002
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Fund Manager Comment
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The fund aims to provide the maximum return with a high degree of security from a portfolio of short-dated fixed interest securities, which have an initial or residual term to maturity not exceeding twelve months. The assets of the fund may also comprise floating rate debt securities with a term to maturity exceeding twelve months provided that the rate of interest attached is reset at least once annually. The weighted average maturity of the fund is limited to 90 days. Alan Greenspan, chairman of the Federal Reserve (Fed), confirmed that the next interest rate hike by the Fed would come later than the markets had been speculating. Testifying before the Joint Economic Committee of Congress, he was cautious. Greenspan said that the Fed was in no rush to raise interest rates until it was certain that a recovery was firmly established. He feared that raising rates too soon would cut short the nascent recovery which until now has been based primarily upon the restocking of business inventories. There was still little evidence of a pick-up in final demand. In some of his most transparent remarks in recent history, Mr Greenspan commented that "the degree of strengthening in final demand over the coming quarters.... is still uncertain". He added that while "the current accommodative stance of monetary policy is not likely to be consistent with maintaining price stability, prospects for low inflation and inflation expectations in the period ahead mean that the Federal Reserve should have ample opportunity to adjust policy to keep inflation pressures contained once sustained, solid, economic expansion is in view". The Commerce Department later reported first quarter 2002 growth at a surprisingly strong 5.8% annual rate, well in excess of the 5.0% consensus estimate. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for May 7 and the target for the overnight federal funds rate is widely expected to be left unchanged at 1.75%.
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