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ACPI FM Limited - News
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Fund Name Changed
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Friday, 23 March 2012
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Official Announcement
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ACPI Global Credit USC C Fund changed to ACPI Global Credit USD C Fund.
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TriAlpha market analysis - Dec 03
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Thursday, 4 March 2004
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General Market Analysis
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Global equity markets closed the year with a flourish as the MSCI World index gained 6.2% in December, the best monthly performance since April. The rally was attributed to the release of generally strong economic data and investor sentiment was also buoyed by the capture of former Iraq President Saddam Hussein.
Continental Europe was the best performing major region with a gain of 8.6% in US dollar terms. The US was the worst performer, rising 5%. Currency returns played a big part in Europe's relative outperformance with the US dollar falling 5% to new record lows against the euro amid mounting concern over the scale of the US current account deficit, fears of trade disputes and ongoing geopolitical worries.
US Economic data remained positive on the whole, boosting confidence that the economic recovery was becoming more sustainable. Elsewhere, Japan's Tankan survey and Germany's Ifo business confidence index also came in better than expected. US equities rose to 21 month highs as investors welcomed the mainly positive economic data, and the Dow Jones Industrial average closed above the psychologically important 10 000 level for the first time in 18 months.
A feature of 2003 was that higher risk strategies performed best as they recovered from oversold levels. So far low quality cyclicals have been the best performers but in the next phase of the equity rally TriAlpha expect that the blue chips will return to favour. TriAlpha remain cautiously optimistic on equity markets for 2004.
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TriAlpha market analysis - Sep 03
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Thursday, 13 November 2003
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General Market Analysis
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Global equities defied predictions of a fall in September, statistically the worst performing month of the year, and recorded their sixth consecutive month of gains. The MSCI $ World Index rose 0.5% over the month in September, with Japan the best performing major region over the month with a 6% gain in US dollar terms.
Manufacturing related economic data was largely positive, but employment levels remained weak in the US. On the monetary front, there were no changes in interest rates from any of the major central banks.
In the foreign exchange markets, the Yen rose to its highest level versus the US dollar in almost three years after a statement from Group of Seven Finance ministers suggested Japan will reduce its practice of selling the Yen to protect its exporters.
In Japan, equity markets were led higher by banks on the back of an apparent economic upturn. Signs of economic growth have fuelled optimism that the banks will speed up writing off bad loans.
Profits continue to improve and analysts' revisions to forecasts have been positive (in contrast to the experience in 2001-02), underpinning the gains made in the markets. Providing that the economic outlook continues to progress satisfactorily, we see some valuation headroom for equity markets as confidence continues to recover.
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TriAlpha market analysis - Jun 03
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Monday, 11 August 2003
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Fund Manager Comment
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Global equity markets enjoyed a third consecutive month of gains following interest rate cuts in both the US and Europe, but the strong gains seen earlier this quarter tailed off as investors became more cautious ahead of the quarter end. The MSCI $ World index rose 1.6% this month. Japan was the best performing region with a gain of 7.3% in US dollar terms.
European equity markets enjoyed a third consecutive month of gains, but the strong growth seen earlier this quarter tailed off, as investors became more cautious. The MSCI $ European index rose 0.7%, whilst Germany's Dax30 Index was the best performing benchmark index with a gain of 8%.
The ECB cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 2.0%, their lowest level yet. The Federal Reserve followed with a 25 basis points cut in US short-term rates to 1.0%, a new 45-year low. The recent strength of the euro, adversely affecting European exporters, was seen as one of the reasons for this move. The Bank of England kept interest rates on hold at 3.75%.
Economic data remained mixed: US unemployment data was worse than expected, but the German Ifo business climate index edged higher for a second successive month, raising hopes the economy might have finally turned the corner.
In the US equity markets there was unease after mortgage lender Freddie Mac announced the dismissal of its chief operating officer for failing to co-operate with an investigation into accounting errors. Shares in the company fell 15% over the month.
European financials were volatile with German banks Commerzbank and Hypovereinsbank both gaining more than 20% on rumours they were to merge. Dutch Equities were less buoyant, however, with consumer goods producer Unilever falling 10% and brewer Heineken dropping 12% after issuing earnings warnings.
Markets have been surprisingly resilient despite the mixed economic signals. Equity markets have in the past been accurate forecasters of the direction of the underlying economy and Trialpha think this could prove to be the case again, though they would prefer a greater degree of certainty before increasing the equity bias.
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TriAlpha market analysis - Mar 03
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Thursday, 22 May 2003
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General Market Analysis
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Financial markets were extremely volatile in March, but failed to close the month on a positive note as investors took profits in the final week of trading.
Events in Iraq dominated sentiment with markets falling to their lowest levels of the year ahead of the conflict. The subsequent invasion on 20 Mar 2003 triggered a sharp rally in equities, which then faltered in the face of stronger than expected Iraqi opposition.
US economic data flow was mixed, with weak consumer confidence and raising unemployment benefits. On the upside thought, productivity rose by more than expected and new orders for durable goods grew at the fastest pace since last July.
In Europe, the ECB cut interest rates by a smaller than expected 25 basis points to 32.5%. The euro-zone rate is now at its lowest level since the ECB was created.
In the equity markets, the leveraged nature of insurance stocks was in evidence as they followed market movements. German insurer Munich Re suffered a 40% swing in value from its high and low values over the month.
Short term, the fund manager's expect that markets will continue to move in a trading range, driven by the less than perfect news flow from the Gulf. The fund manager's strategy remains one of positioning the funds to withstand the volatility in whatever direction.
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TriAlpha market analysis - Feb 03
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Friday, 28 March 2003
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General Market Analysis
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Global equity markets remained weak. Poor earnings results on both sides of the Atlantic, renewed fears of war with Iraq, and a resurgence of accounting concerns continued to undermine fragile investor confidence.
US economic data flow improved, with new order indicators coming in above the breakeven 50 level and US labour market data beating expectations. The German Ifo business confidence index surprised on the upside.
European equity markets remained weak as poor earnings results on both sides of the Atlantic, renewed fears of war with Iraq, and a resurgence of accounting concerns undermined fragile investor confidence.
Industrial production in the euro-zone suffered its biggest monthly drop on record. However, the second consecutive monthly rise in Germany's Ifo business confidence index boosted hopes that Germany may avoid a second recession.
The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%. The ECB held rates constant at 2.75%, but is expected to ease monetary policy soon.
In the equity markets, Dell Computers provided some badly needed cheer, rising 13% after posting strong revenue growth. In Europe, trading was dominated by the 70% fall in Dutch retailer, Ahold, following the revelation of accounting irregularities in its US operations.
Trialpha say they will continue to adopt a conservative approach in their asset allocation, striking a balance between minimising further downside risks and being positioned to take advantage of market rallies.
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TriAlpha market analysis - Dec 02
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Thursday, 13 February 2003
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General Market Analysis
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Global equity markets failed to maintain their recent rally. Investor confidence is undermined by the renewed threat of war between the US and Iraq, and by North Korea's stance with regards to its nuclear weapons program. Against this backdrop, the MSCI $ World index fell 4.9%.
The US was the worst performing region with a fall of 6.2%, while the UK was the best performer with a fall of 2.3% in US $ terms.
US economic data was mixed. Productivity grew at a faster than expected annual rate of 5.1% in Q3.
In the equity markets, shares closed lower as investors locked in gains against a backdrop of continuing economic, corporate and geopolitical uncertainty. Technology stocks, which had driven the rally in October and November, led the declines in December
Looking ahead, Trialpha shall continue to adopt a conservative strategy in the funds asset allocation for 2003, preferring to see more convincing signals before significantly shifting to a more pro-equity stance.
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TriAlpha market analysis - Nov 02
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Thursday, 19 December 2002
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General Market Analysis
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The main issue for investors at the start of the month was the prospect of synchronised monetary easing from the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. In the event, all three central banks managed to surprise investors with their decisions, but for different reasons. Firstly, the Fed exceeded market expectations with an aggressive 50 basis point cut in the Federal funds rate from 1.75% to 1.25%. Most analysts had only been expecting a 25 basis point cut. A day later, it was the Bank of England and ECB's turn to surprise the markets, this time by deciding to take no action. Again, most analysts had predicted 25 basis point cut from both Central Banks. On the economic front, US economic data generally managed to surprise on the upside during the month. Retail sales figures were strong, weekly jobless claims were lower with the four-week average dropping under 400,000 for the first time in almost three months, and US consumer confidence also rebounded robustly in November after five months of decline. In Europe, Germany's closely watched Ifo business confidence indicator fell for a sixth consecutive month, but the drop was milder than expected and raised hopes that the risk of a full-blown recession was subsiding. Turning to Japan, the news was not so good with the current account surplus slipping 6.8% year-on-year in September, its first decline in a year.
In the equity markets, defensive stocks in the US came under pressure with profit warnings from restaurant chain McDonalds and tobacco giant Philip Morris. In Europe, French bank Credit Lyonnais was a clear winner, up 40% on the month, following BNP Paribas' surprise decision to acquire the Government's 10% stake in the bank, a move which led to speculation that BNP would attempt a full takeover of Credit Lyonnais. Elsewhere, positive momentum in the telecom and technology sectors ensured strong performance from those sectors over the period. Japanese stocks were initially weaker with the Nikkei 225 index hitting fresh 19-year lows early in the month. The banking sector initially led the market down before rebounding strongly after the watering down of the banking-reform proposals eased fears of forced nationalisation among the weaker banks. TriAlpha continue to be encouraged by the news flow from companies and sentiment of investors has improved remarkably swiftly during the last two months. The 50bp interest rate cut by the Fed also underlines the determination of the US authorities to avoid any risk of a double-dip economic scenario.
TriAlpha continue to believe that investors prepared to invest in equities for the longer term will be rewarded for accepting some risk. TriAlpha intend however to tread carefully, continuing to look for evidence of improving fundamentals before increasing equity weightings significantly.
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TriAlpha market analysis - Oct 02
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Tuesday, 19 November 2002
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General Market Analysis
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Global equity markets bounced back strongly in October, buoyed by a combination of low equity valuations following the sell-off in September, and a US earnings season that managed to surprise on the upside. The MSCI $ World index had its best monthly performance since December 1999, gaining 7.3% over the period. Fixed interest markets by contrast were weaker following the equity rally, with the Salomon Brothers World Government Bond index falling 0.4% and the 10 Year US Treasury losing 2% over the month.
The strong rally in the markets was precipitated by President Bush's decision to end the dockworker lockout that had shut West Coast ports since the end of September, potentially costing the economy as much as $19bn. Trading was dominated over the rest of the month by the Q3 earnings season, with investors choosing to ignore weak economic data, concentrating instead on strong earnings results from the likes of Citigroup and Procter & Gamble. Markets were unable to sustain the rally, however, as investors became increasingly concerned that the strong gains were not justified by the outlook for corporate profit growth.
Continental Europe was the best performing major region in October, rising 10.8% in US dollar terms. On the economic front, the ECB and Bank of England both kept interest rates on hold, as expected, with little effect on equity markets. The technology sector recovered strongly, with the likes of mobile phone operator Ericsson doubling in value over the month. On the downside there were some large stock specific hits, namely Swiss-Swedish engineer ABB, which lost 63% of its market capitalisation following a profits warning. Elsewhere, Japan was the worst performing major region over the month, the MSCI Japan index falling 7% in US$ terms. The appointment of a new financial services minister fuelled speculation that aggressive banking reforms are imminent. Equities took a further knock after automaker Honda announced unexpectedly weak earnings and cut its operating profits forecast for the full year.
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TriAlpha market analysis - Aug 2002
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Monday, 16 September 2002
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General Market Analysis
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US economic data releases at the start of the month were gloomy, with the Institute for Supply Management reporting sharp falls for both the manufacturing and service sectors, and while orders for durable goods during July rose at the fastest pace so far this year, any support from this data was subsequently dented by a sharp fall in consumer confidence. Sentiment was further damaged by a surprise rise in first time jobless benefits to above 400,000, the highest level since July. Equity markets, which rose 0.3% over the month, started on a poor note following the negative economic sentiment. However, expectations of a possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve sparked a bounce in equity markets which was sustained despite the Fed keeping rates on hold. Later in the month expectations of further cuts were dampened following upbeat comments on the economy from Federal Reserve officials. Investors took heart from the comments though, and became more hopeful of a near-term economic rebound. The rally received a further boost after the IMF agreed to a $30bn loan to help bail Brazil out if its financial woes. Subsequent gains in financial stocks helped the Dow Jones and S&P500 Indices register their best three-day gains since 1987. However, the rally ran out of steam in the final week following the sharp fall in consumer confidence, and investor sentiment in the corporate recovery was further dented by a downbeat assessment of demand from Intel's Chief Executive and a profits warning from Nortel Networks.
In Europe, both the Bank of England and the ECB left rates unchanged in their respective regions, reflecting the continuing uncertainty about the extent of economic recovery both in Europe and across the globe. On the economic front, there was disappointing data from Germany after the closely watched Ifo business confidence index fell slightly more than expected in August. In the equity markets, Continental Europe was the best performing region with a return of 0.5% in US $ terms, but the UK was the worst performer with a fall of 1.6%. Elsewhere, Japan underperformed the global markets with a fall of 1.1% in US $ terms as export oriented stocks such as Sony came under pressure following the poor US consumer confidence data. A 1% strengthening of the yen versus the US $ over the month also hit Japanese exporters.
Markets are often dominated by sentiment over shorter periods but fundamentals tend to reassert themselves over the longer term and it is for this reason that the fund manager's see brighter prospects going forward for the longer term. In recent months, companies have generally reported earnings in line with expectations and have started to show some growth over the previous year. The fund manager's believe this earnings growth is the key to a sustainable recovery in equity prices and so continue to look cautiously for opportunities in high quality companies that can deliver such growth.
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